High-level machine intelligence (unaided machines beat humans at every task)
10% chance by2027 50% chance by2047
2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers; aggregate forecast.
arxiv.orgRobotics
How many robots work today, who builds and researches them, and how far each kind of robot is from doing the job at scale. Figures are the latest public ones from the IFR, Omdia and OpenAlex; the full IFR World Robotics report is paid, so only its published headlines appear.
Industrial robots installed, 2024 542.1k IFR World Robotics
Robots in operation 4.7m +9% a year
Robot density, world 132 per 10,000 factory workers
Humanoids shipped, 2025 13.3k worldwide (Omdia)
Robotics papers 29.2k in 2025 (OpenAlex)
IFR outlook 2028 700k+ installations a year
How far along is it?
Industrial robot arms in structured factories Mature, at scale
4.66M in operation; 542k installed in 2024. ifr.org · 31 Dec 2024
Driverless robotaxis in selected cities Commercial, scaling
About 500k paid Waymo rides a week; Apollo Go peaks above 350k a week. techcrunch.com · 27 Mar 2026
Humanoids in factory and logistics pilots Early commercial
About 13,000 humanoids shipped in 2025 (0.003 per industrial robot in service). technode.com · 31 Dec 2025
Humanoids doing chores in homes Pre-orders and teleoperated demos
1X NEO pre-orders in 2025, deliveries planned for 2026. businessinsider.com · 1 Nov 2025
General-purpose robots doing most human physical work Not reached; research
Surveyed researchers put a 50% chance on full automation of all occupations by 2116. arxiv.org · 5 Jan 2024
Stages: 1 research · 2 demos and pre-orders · 3 early commercial · 4 commercial and scaling · 5 mature at scale. The stage is a judgement from the linked evidence, not a measured number; what is left is the empty part of each bar.
Industrial robots: who installs them
Industrial robot installations, 2024
new units per country (IFR World Robotics 2025 press release)China alone installed 295,045 (54% of the world). Source: ifr.org.
Robot density
industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing employeesIFR robot-density release. Source: ifr.org.
Installations by region, 2024
IFRHumanoid shipments by country, 2025
share of about 13,000 units (Omdia)About 13,000 humanoids shipped worldwide in 2025; Chinese firms about 87%. Source: technode.com.
Humanoid tracker
| Company | Robot | Shipped 2025 | Funding / owner | Milestone | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 AgiBot (Zhiyuan) | A2, X2, G1 | 5,168 | unknown | No. 1 in humanoid shipments in 2025 (39% share). | technode.com · 31 Dec 2025 |
| 🇨🇳 Unitree | G1, H1, H2 | 4,200 | unknown | No. 2 by shipments in 2025; also sells quadrupeds. | technode.com · 31 Dec 2025 |
| 🇨🇳 UBTech | Walker S | 1,000 | unknown | No. 3 by shipments in 2025; listed in Hong Kong. | technode.com · 31 Dec 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 Tesla Optimus | Optimus | 150 | unknown | About 150 units in 2025 (Omdia estimate), mostly internal use. | forbes.com · 31 Dec 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 Figure AI | Figure 02 / 03 | 150 | >$1B Series C at a $39B post-money valuation (Sep 2025) | About 150 units in 2025 (Omdia, via Forbes). | figure.ai · 16 Sept 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 Agility Robotics | Digit | 150 | unknown | About 150 units in 2025 (Omdia estimate); logistics deployments. | forbes.com · 31 Dec 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 Apptronik | Apollo | unknown | $350M Series A (Feb 2025), later extended | Unknown | streetinsider.com · 13 Feb 2025 |
| 🇳🇴 1X | NEO (home robot) | unknown | unknown | Pre-orders only in 2025; consumer deliveries planned for 2026. | businessinsider.com · 1 Nov 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 Boston Dynamics | Atlas (electric), Spot, Stretch | unknown | Owned by Hyundai Motor Group | Humanoid unit numbers not disclosed. | forbes.com · unknown |
| 🇨🇳 Fourier | GR-series | unknown | unknown | Unknown | forbes.com · unknown |
Research: who contributes most
Robotics papers by country
works per year with an author affiliated in the country (OpenAlex, topic Robotics)A paper with authors in several countries counts for each. The current year is left out because it is incomplete.
Top countries, 2025
robotics papers (OpenAlex)Top institutions, 2025
robotics papers (OpenAlex)Robotics in the news, last 30 days
articles by outlet country (GDELT)Not shown: patents (no keyless patent API; PATENTSCOPE and Espacenet need accounts), public robotics funding by country (no comparable open dataset) and industrial-robot maker market shares (IFR and analysts sell these).
Forecasts
Full automation of all human occupations
10% chance by2037 50% chance by2116
Same survey. Answers vary widely with question framing.
arxiv.orgMetaculus community forecasts
Not collected: the Metaculus API now requires a token (HTTP 403 without one).
metaculus.comIndustrial robot installations (IFR outlook)
2025575k 2028700k+
ifr.orgPolicy and news
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-313/25, Kinova Europe: Judgment of the General Court (Fifth Chamber, sitting with five Judges) of 3 June 2026 (request for a preliminary ruling from the Finanzgericht Hamburg – Germany) – Kinova Europe GmbH v Hauptzollamt Hanover (Reference for a preliminary ruling – Customs union – Common Customs Tariff – Combined Nomenclature – Heading 9021 – Orthopaedic appliances – Other appliances which are worn or carried, or implanted in the body, to compensate for a defect or disability – Robotic eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Judgment of the General Court (Fifth Chamber, Extended Composition) of 3 June 2026.#Kinova Europe GmbH v Hauptzollamt Hannover.#Request for a preliminary ruling from the Finanzgericht Hamburg.#Reference for a preliminary ruling – Customs union – Common Customs Tariff – Combined Nomenclature – Heading 9021 – Orthopaedic appliances – Other appliances which are worn or carried, or implanted in the body, to compensate for a defect or disability – Robotic arm attached to an electric wheelchair.#Case eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Non-opposition to a notified concentration (Case M.12248 – SBG / ABB ROBOTICS) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Commission Decision of 11/03/2026 declaring a concentration to be compatible with the common market (Case No COMP/M.12248 - SBG / ABB ROBOTICS) according to Council Regulation (EC) No 139/2004 (Only the English text is authentic) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Prior notification of a concentration (Case M.12248 – SBG / ABB ROBOTICS) – Candidate case for simplified procedure eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/142 of 22 January 2026 making imports of robot lawn mowers originating in the People’s Republic of China subject to registration with a view to allowing the levy of anti-dumping duties on the imports subject to registration eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-815/25: Action brought on 25 November 2025 – Techman Robot v EUIPO – MAN Truck & Bus (Techman) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Notice of initiation of an anti-dumping proceeding concerning imports of robot lawn mowers originating in the People’s Republic of China eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee – The contribution of the robotics metaverse in the medical sector (own-initiative opinion) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Judgment of the General Court (First Chamber, Extended Composition) of 21 February 2024.#Inivos Ltd and Inivos BV v European Commission.#Public procurement – Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice – Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals – Extreme urgency – COVID-19 – Non-participation of the applicants in the tendering procedure – Action for annulment – Lack of individual concern – Contractual nature of the dispute – Inadmissibility – Liability.#Case T- eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Judgment of the General Court (First Chamber, Extended Composition) of 21 February 2024.#Inivos Ltd and Inivos BV v European Commission.#Public procurement – Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice – Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals – Extreme urgency – COVID-19 – Non-participation of the applicants in the tendering procedure – Action for annulment – Lack of individual concern – Contractual nature of the dispute – Inadmissibility – Liability.#Case T- eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-38/21: Judgment of the General Court of 21 February 2024 — Inivos and Inivos v Commission (Public procurement — Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice — Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals — Extreme urgency — COVID-19 — Non-participation of the applicants in the tendering procedure — Action for annulment — Lack of individual concern — Contractual nature of the dispute — Inadmissibility — Liability) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Initiation of proceedings (Case M.10920 – AMAZON / IROBOT) (Text with EEA relevance) 2023/C 245/04 eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Prior notification of a concentration (Case M.10920 – AMAZON / IROBOT) (Text with EEA relevance) 2023/C 202/12 eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 P9_TA(2023)0097 Machinery European Parliament legislative resolution of 18 April 2023 on the proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Machinery products (COM(2021)0202 — C9-0145/2021 — 2021/0105(COD)) P9_TC1-COD(2021)0105 Position of the European Parliament adopted at first reading on 18 April 2023 with a view to the adoption of Regulation (EU) 2023/… of the European Parliament and of the Council on machinery and repealing Directive 2006/42/EC of the European Pa eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Order of the General Court (First Chamber) of 14 December 2022.#ICA Traffic GmbH v European Commission.#Action for annulment – Public procurement – Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice – Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals in the context of the COVID-19 crisis – Maximum quantity of goods to be supplied under a framework contract – Act forming part of a purely contractual framework – Act not amenable to review – Inadmissibility.#Case T-717/21. eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Order of the General Court (First Chamber) of 14 December 2022.#ICA Traffic GmbH v European Commission.#Action for annulment – Public procurement – Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice – Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals in the context of the COVID-19 crisis – Maximum quantity of goods to be supplied under a framework contract – Act forming part of a purely contractual framework – Act not amenable to review – Inadmissibility.#Case T-717/21. eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-717/21: Order of the General Court of 14 December 2022 — ICA Traffic v Commission (Action for annulment — Public procurement — Negotiated procedure without prior publication of a contract notice — Supply of disinfection robots to European hospitals in the context of the COVID-19 crisis — Maximum quantity of goods to be supplied under a framework contract — Act forming part of a purely contractual framework — Act not amenable to review — Inadmissibility) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-717/21 R: Order of the President of the General Court of 26 January 2022 — ICA Traffic v Commission (Application for interim relief — Public procurement — Supply of disinfection robots — Application for interim measures — No urgency) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Order of the President of the General Court of 26 January 2022.#ICA Traffic GmbH v European Commission.#Application for interim relief – Public procurement – Supply of disinfection robots – Application for interim measures – No urgency.#Case T-717/21 R. eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Order of the President of the General Court of 26 January 2022.#ICA Traffic GmbH v European Commission.#Application for interim relief – Public procurement – Supply of disinfection robots – Application for interim measures – No urgency.#Case T-717/21 R. eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Case T-3/21: Judgment of the General Court of 6 October 2021 — Power Horse Energy Drinks v EUIPO — Robot Energy Europe (UNSTOPPABLE) (EU trade mark — Invalidity proceedings — EU word mark UNSTOPPABLE — Absolute grounds for refusal — Distinctive character — Article 7(1)(b) of Regulation (EC) No 207/2009 (now Article 7(1)(b) of Regulation (EU) 2017/1001) — Lack of descriptive character — Article 7(1)(c) of Regulation No 207/2009 (now Article 7(1)(c) of Regulation 2017/1001)) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee on ‘Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on machinery products’ (COM(2021) 202 final — 2021/0105 (COD)) eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 Joined Cases C-721/19 and C-722/19: Judgment of the Court (Fifth Chamber) of 2 September 2021 (references for a preliminary ruling from the Consiglio di Stato — Italy) — Sisal SpA (C-721/19), Stanleybet Malta Ltd (C-722/19), Magellan Robotech Ltd (C-722/19) v Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli, Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze (Reference for a preliminary ruling — Articles 49 and 56 TFEU — Free movement of services — Restrictions — Directive 2014/23/EU — Concession award procedure — Arti eur-lex.europa.eu
- EUR-Lex 🇪🇺 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT Accompanying the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on machinery products eur-lex.europa.eu